CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-04-27T13:54:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2020 May 01 1232 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 00501
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 May 2020, 1231UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 01 May 2020 until 03 May 2020)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 01 May 2020  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 May 2020  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 May 2020  10CM FLUX: 070 / AP: 004
COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. Active Region (AR)
2762 produced a B-flare at 12:17 on Apr 30. AR 2760 and newly numbered AR
2763 located at N32E12 were inactive over the period. Solar flaring
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. A small patchy negative
polarity equatorial coronal hole began to transit the central meridian on
May 01.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the
available coronagraphic imagery in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24
hours and is expected to stay at nominal levels for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was between nominal and moderate
levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to be at nominal to moderate
levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed near Earth varied between 270 km/s to 320 km/s
(DSCOVR). The total magnetic field oscillated around 4 nT for the first
half of the period but showed a gradual increase from 03:20 UT May 01 to a
maximum value of 8 nT.  Bz was mostly positive until 03:20 UT when it
became negative for an extended duration with values down to -6 nT. The
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) phi angle was predominantly in the
negative sector (directed towards the Sun), deviating into the positive
sector during the period of slightly enhanced negative Bz.
Predominantly background solar wind conditions are expected for May 01 -
03. The filament eruption observed on April 27, that possibly had an Earth
directed component, may produce a slight enhancement in solar wind
parameters at Earth on May 02.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp
recorded values between 0-2 and 0-3, respectively). Quiet to unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected for May 01 - 03, with the possibility
of an isolated active interval.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 007, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 30 Apr 2020
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 070
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 004
AK WINGST              : 002
ESTIMATED AP           : 003
ESTIMATED ISN          : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT
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